Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $738,020$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.43 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{966,684.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 146.6)}}\) (asimptote \(966,684.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,927$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,870.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.8)}}\) (asimptote \(37,870.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $126,340$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $128,872$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,118.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 130.9)}}\) (asimptote \(139,118.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,478$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,770.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 167.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13,770.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,363$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,419,083$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,944,026.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 132.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,944,026.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $134,106$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,183.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 111.2)}}\) (asimptote \(140,183.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $439,513$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $439,287$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{409,741.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 102.1)}}\) (asimptote \(409,741.3\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,058$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(969 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,610.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 103.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,610.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,376$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $121,525$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(1.4 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145,412.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 123.9)}}\) (asimptote \(145,412.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,996$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(962 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,951.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 139.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,951.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,466$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $736,377$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(9.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{904,674.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 153.0)}}\) (asimptote \(904,674.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23,478$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(431 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,759.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 141.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,759.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $102,821$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $589,012$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(4.25 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,008,184.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 177.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,008,184.3\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,116$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(95.9 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,187.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 182.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,187.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $128,633$ on 2020-09-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,645$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(40.6 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,370.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 152.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,370.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $95$ on 2020-09-16
Best fit exponential: \(0.848 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 171.9)}}\) (asimptote \(223.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $461$ on 2020-09-16
